PH will hold the citadel
Murray Hunter The latest possible election date for Penang is October 1, although it maybe held before then.
Perikatan Nasional (PN) is approaching the coming six state elections aggressively. PN will hold Kelantan, and Terengganu. It will consolidate Kedah even further, and have some show in Negri Sembilan. Selangor will be a battle Royale, with Pakatan Harapan and UMNO expected to win with a reduced majority.
PN are hoping the ‘green wave’ will prevail in the coming state elections. However, Penang will be a very different case, with a number of other factors that will influence the results. Back in the 2008 electoral Tsunami, the then Pakatan Rakyat opposition swept to power by winning 29 out of 40 seats in the Penang Legislative Assembly. The Lim Guan Eng led opposition routed the Barisan Nasional, which lost 27 seats. Gerakan, the MCA, and MIC were completely wiped out. UMNO was left with 11 seats, and became the opposition. In 2018, Pakatan Harapan consolidated their power by winning 37 seats in the legislative assembly, losing four representatives after the Sheraton Putsch in February 2020. PH goes into the coming election with 35 seats (including 2 from UMNO).
Pas has just one seat (Kepala Batas) in the current legislative assembly. There are also 4 vacant seats (Bertam, Seberang Jaya, Sungei Acheh, and Telok Bahang), with the Speaker exercising his power under the Penang party hoping law.
Penang is a DAP citadel Penang’s 1.7 million inhabitants are both ageing and shrinking. Penang was traditionally thought of as a Chinese dominated state, but now the Malay and Chinese populations are fairly even at 40 percent each, with the Indian community contributing 10 percent. On Penang Island there are 18 seats, which are primarily Chinese dominated, with the exceptions of Bayan Lepas, Pulau Betong, Telok Bahang, and Batu Muang. Most of the Chinese dominated seats are held by the DAP or PKR with massive majorities and are extremely safe.
Seats like Bukit Tambun, Bukit Tengah, and Perai have high Indian populations, and could be swayed by any changing trends in the Indian vote.
On the mainland, there are 22 seats, which are Malay dominated, except for Bagan Jermal, Bagan Dalam, Perai, Padang Lalang, Berapit, and Jawi.
Thus, it can be expected that DAP and PKR will almost certainly hold onto 26 seats, at a minimum. PAS will hold onto Penaga, in the northern part of the mainland, and PN should pick up Permatang Pasir, Beragan, Sungei Acheh, and have a very good chance in Bayan Lepas, and Telok Bahang, giving the PN 6 seats.
That leaves 8 seats, which are too hard to call. These include Bertam, Penang Tunggal, Sungei Dua, Telok Ayer Tawar, Seberang Jaya, Peranti, Sungei Bakap, and Pulau Betong. Even if PH doesn’t win any of these tight seats, they can still form a government with a simple majority. However, if PN can win them, that would give them an opposition of up to 14 seats in the new legislative assembly.
Potential Surprises The recent arrest of Muhyiddin Yassin on corruption charges could create an ‘Abah effect’, something like was seen with Najib Razak in the Johor State election last year. If this effect eventuates, then PN may perform much better in the tight seats. If the Indian vote either turns against PH, or fails to turn out to vote, this could disadvantage PH.
Gerakan are planning to contest in 3 seats they held up to the 2008 state election. These include Pantai Jerejak, Batu Uban, and Batu Muang. With a moderate percentage of Chinese voters in each seat, Gerakan is likely to be punished for collaborating with PN, (the opposite side to the ‘Abah effect’).
Other issues Voters are sophisticated in Penang and have a clear understanding of state verses federal issues. Penang has been run reasonably, however there is some grassroots pushback against what is sometimes perceived as arrogance by the state administration. We will only know how strong these feelings are with the results on election night.
In this state election, it’s the DAP that will prop-up PKR, which is going through a patch of unpopularity at this time. This will be a strong message to prime minister Anwar Ibrahim as to the importance of the DAP in supporting his administration.
34 seats would be a massive win for PH in Penang. 26 seats would be a disappointment. Likewise, 6 seats for PN should be expected, but 14 seats would give credence to the ‘green wave’ factor.
Penang will be an interesting state to watch.
Originally published in My Sin Chew 20th March 2023
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