PAS now on the cusp of power

21MondayAug 2023

Posted by Dennis Ignatius in Malaysia, Politics, Uncategorized The biggest winner of all was undoubtedly PAS, the dominant partner in the PN coalition. Thanks largely to PAS, PN turned in a stunning performance that no doubt shook the unity government to its core.

PN made impressive inroads in states controlled by PH-BN. In DAP-controlled Penang, it went from one seat to 11; in Selangor it quadrupled its seats from 5 to 22 (just seven seats short of a simple majority) while in Negeri Sembilan it upped its tally from zero to five. At the same time, PN tightened its hold on Kedah (winning 33 of 36 seats), Kelantan (43 of 45 seats) and sweeping all of Terengganu’s 32 seats.

Of the 245 seats in six states that were up for grabs, PAS took 105 seats while Bersatu took 40, PKR 25, UMNO 19, DAP 46 and Amanah 8.

What this tells us is that Malay-Muslim voters now favour PN over PH-BN by a large margin. More importantly, it allows PAS in particular to legitimately claim that it now represents the aspirations of a majority of Malay-Muslims. And that can only be bad news for Anwar and the unity government.

While most non-Malays dismiss PAS as nothing more than a bunch of dangerous fanatics, Malay-Muslims clearly see them in a very different light as recent voting patterns indicate. We can talk about the party’s terrible record in Kelantan – a stagnant economy, low foreign investment, high unemployment, dirty drinking water, etc. – but somehow Malay-Muslim voters in Kelantan, Kedah, Terengganu and even in parts of Selangor and Penang don’t seem to think that all that is as important as having leaders with the right Malay-Muslim credentials.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise given that PAS and other Islamic groups have spent the last 40 years or so conditioning the Malay-Muslim mind to prioritise religion (and later, ethnicity) above all else. PAS has arguably the most well-organized and extensive political infrastructure in the country – certainly, better than anything that PKR, Amanah, UMNO or for that matter, Bersatu can muster – that is able to utilize social media, civil society and the nation’s religious network to reach into every government institution, every university, every home, every kampong, every housing estate and every mosque and surau across the country.

Add to that the thousands of PAS-run religious schools that have sprouted across the country over the last few decades and you have generations of voters – including the millions of younger voters who came in under the Undi18 initiative – conditioned to see the world as PAS does.

As well, PAS has patiently bided its time, entering into strategic partnerships with different parties (including the DAP) to make inroads and gain experience and exposure. Even now, they are careful to allow Muhyiddin (instead of Hadi) to be the face of PN for tactical reasons. PAS has also astutely turned every political development to its advantage. Mahathir and Anwar Islamised the bureaucracy and other institutions; PAS became the main beneficiary. When PKR and DAP ganged up against UMNO, PAS joined them and moved up the ladder. When other Malay-Muslim leaders fought each other, PAS exploited the situation to gain a foothold in the federal government. When UMNO joined hands with the DAP, PAS seized the opportunity to position itself as the only party still committed to the Malay-Muslim agenda.

There’s no denying that PAS is now on the cusp of national power. Having decisively replaced UMNO as the party of choice of Malay-Muslims voters, don’t expect PAS to wait patiently for GE 16 to come around to challenge the unity government. Anwar might have the power of incumbency on his side but PAS has something even more powerful – Malay-Muslim sentiment and support, a messianic belief in its own mission and an organization to mobilize the masses.

PAS leaders know that the unity government is now on the defensive and will do everything in their power to destabilize the government utilizing the most potent weapons at their disposal – race and religion.

What makes the situation worse is that PH-BN leaders do not appear to have any real answers to the green wave. The next few months, therefore, might turn out to be amongst the most turbulent and consequential in our nation’s history.

[Dennis Ignatius | Kuala Lumpur | 21 August 2023]