Malaysia Strategy - Early peek into potential GE15 outcomes
📌Latest Merdeka Centre survey revealed BN may not have it as easy in GE15 as previously thought, due to increased intention to vote by non-Malay voters.
📌Current base case for election outcome is for BN plus GPS to win a simple majority and form next government, but hung parliament is also a possibility.
📌We think market has priced in a BN win (with GPS) for GE15. However, if a hung parliament scenario occurs, it could be a drag on market.
Link to report: https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?file=796be0b6-137f-436b-83c0-3d6032e16cec
Approval for BN drops below 2018 levels
Updated 1 hour ago · Published on 30 Oct 2022 11:44AM · 0 Comments
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Satisfaction with caretake prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob was at 46% in September, a Merdeka Centre for Opinion survey shows. – The Malaysian Insight file pic, October 30, 2022.
PUBLIC opinion of Barisan Nasional is lower now than in 2018, when the coalition lost the general election for the first time in 60 years, Singapore’s Straits Times reports.
Independent pollster Merdeka Center for Opinion Research said approval for the government in September stood at 38%, lower than the 39% in April 2018.
Malaysia will vote on November 19.
Surveys by the pollster showed that 51% of respondents were dissatisfied with the government in September, compared with 47% just before Najib Razak, tainted by the billion-dollar 1MDB scandal, was ousted in May 2018.
Merdeka Center, which has presented its findings to various financial institutions in recent days, said “sentiments, which hit lows in July, have eased as inflation and cost of living increases were mitigated by government subsidies”.
BN’s own projections last week showed it is only assured of victory in about 60 of the 222 parliamentary seats.
Satisfaction with caretaker prime minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob was at 46% in September. But it is still far higher than the paltry 13% for Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
Overall opinion is ambivalent for Umno deputy president Mohamad Hasan.
Four in 10 respondents had no opinion of him, in a reflection of his relatively lower profile, while 32% expressed satisfaction and 29% said they were dissatisfied.
In comparison, a third of those polled were satisfied with PH leader Anwar Ibrahim, while PN chief Muhyiddin Yassin was the most popular with 51% approval.
“Despite apparent low ratings, Zahid and his possible PM candidates (from Umno) have the support of a loyal base. However, this could turn off undecided voters and turn them to alternatives,” the Merdeka Center said. – October 30, 2022.
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